Posted on | November 28, 2012 |
The Chapman Economic Forecast for California, released Wednesday afternoon by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, sees clear signs of headwinds in 2013.
Higher taxes ? sales, income and payroll ? are the primary concern.
Nonetheless, the forecast reiterated the early prediction in June that 2013 will bring a housing recovery.
Chapman is also calling for housing starts to increase from 765,000 units in 2012 to 868,000 units in 2013, an increase of 13.4 percent.
Private investment in residential structures could to rise $70 billion or 18.5 percent. Though consumer sentiment has risen to 94.2 in the third quarter of 2012, and construction spending is in some state of a rebound ? with total value of housing permits rising since 2009 ? weak improvement in the job market for 2013 is likely to limit home price appreciation.
Chapman echoed the California Association of Realtors? predicted 6.7 percent rise in median price in the state for 2013. An 8.9 percent increase is in the cards for 2012.
Affordability has also improved, as rents rise, the forecast said, adding that this scenario is tilting the home purchase versus rent decision toward a move to purchase. ?This, in part, explains why home buying activity picked up steam in 2012,? the report said. ?The increase on sales is welcome news and is helping to reduce inventory of unsold homes.?
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Source: http://blog.pe.com/real-estate/2012/11/28/real-estate-chapman-repeats-housing-recovery-for-13/
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